SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 65 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | NEC | 33 | -13 | 38 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 33 | -15 | 38 |
| 10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | -12 | 36 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 62.76%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 16.32%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.93%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 0-1 (4.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heerenveen |
62.76% ( 2.17) | 20.92% ( -0.56) | 16.32% ( -1.61) |
| Both teams to score 51.5% ( -1.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.46% ( -0.34) | 44.53% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.1% ( -0.33) | 66.9% ( 0.33) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.42% ( 0.55) | 13.58% ( -0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.31% ( 1.09) | 40.69% ( -1.09) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.59% ( -2.14) | 40.41% ( 2.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.98% ( -2) | 77.02% ( 2) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 1-0 @ 10.95% ( 0.37) 2-0 @ 10.93% ( 0.58)2-1 @ 9.91% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.53)3-1 @ 6.6% ( 0.11)4-0 @ 3.63% ( 0.33)4-1 @ 3.29% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.13)4-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.45% ( 0.16)5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.91% Total : 62.75% | 1-1 @ 9.93% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 5.49% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.29)3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.1)Other @ 0.11% Total : 20.92% | 0-1 @ 4.97% ( -0.22) 1-2 @ 4.5% ( -0.38)0-2 @ 2.25% ( -0.24)1-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.2)2-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.17)Other @ 1.88% Total : 16.32% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 27 | 27 |
| 2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 22 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 6 | 22 | 20 |
| 5 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | Heracles | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 9 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 9 |
| 12 | Almere CityAlmere City | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 8 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 7 |
| 15 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Ajax | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | FC VolendamVolendam | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 17 | -13 | 3 |
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