SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 65 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 33 | 22 | 61 |
| 6 | Vitesse | 33 | -9 | 50 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Cambuur | 33 | -18 | 36 |
| 13 | RKC Waalwijk | 33 | -13 | 35 |
| 14 | Heracles | 33 | -14 | 34 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 70.33%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 11.35%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.71%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.71%), while for a RKC Waalwijk win it was 0-1 (4%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
70.33% ( 2.09) | 18.31% ( -0.76) | 11.35% ( -1.33) |
| Both teams to score 46.51% ( -1.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.94% ( 0.01) | 44.05% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.56% ( 0.01) | 66.44% ( -0.02) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.7% ( 0.56) | 11.3% ( -0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.06% ( 1.22) | 35.94% ( -1.23) |
| RKC Waalwijk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.44% ( -2.25) | 47.55% ( 2.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.09% ( -1.73) | 82.9% ( 1.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | RKC Waalwijk |
| 2-0 @ 12.77% ( 0.56) 1-0 @ 11.71% ( 0.25)2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.18)3-0 @ 9.28% ( 0.61)3-1 @ 6.9% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 5.06% ( 0.44)4-1 @ 3.76% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.56% ( -0.16)5-0 @ 2.21% ( 0.24)5-1 @ 1.64% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.4% ( -0.05)Other @ 3.53% Total : 70.32% | 1-1 @ 8.71% ( -0.37) 0-0 @ 5.37% ( -0)2-2 @ 3.53% ( -0.3)Other @ 0.7% Total : 18.31% | 0-1 @ 4% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 3.24% ( -0.36)0-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.2)Other @ 2.64% Total : 11.35% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 73 | 28 | 45 | 73 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 30 | 20 | 5 | 5 | 81 | 35 | 46 | 65 |
| 3 | Ajax | 30 | 18 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 32 | 47 | 62 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 29 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 56 | 32 | 24 | 57 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 50 | 33 | 17 | 53 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 30 | 14 | 10 | 6 | 51 | 26 | 25 | 52 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 30 | 12 | 9 | 9 | 46 | 45 | 1 | 45 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 46 | 49 | -3 | 38 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 38 |
| 10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 36 |
| 11 | NECNijmegen | 29 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 35 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 30 | 9 | 5 | 16 | 35 | 56 | -21 | 32 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 31 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 30 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 30 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 29 | 51 | -22 | 28 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 30 | 8 | 4 | 18 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 28 |
| 17 | Groningen | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 28 | 59 | -31 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 30 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 60 | -39 | 16 |
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