SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 39.64%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 36.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.13%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (8.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Jong Ajax | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
36.53% ( -0.1) | 23.82% ( -0.02) | 39.64% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 62.07% ( 0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.94% ( 0.09) | 40.06% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.57% ( 0.09) | 62.42% ( -0.09) |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.03% ( -0.01) | 21.97% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.73% ( -0.02) | 55.27% ( 0.02) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.55% ( 0.09) | 20.45% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.09% ( 0.15) | 52.91% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong Ajax | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-1 @ 8.19% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.81% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 5.16% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.14% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.61% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.57% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0)4-0 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.55% Total : 36.53% | 1-1 @ 10.8% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.5% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.49% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.74% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.82% | 1-2 @ 8.58% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.54% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.44% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.8% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.19% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.95% Total : 39.64% |
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