While being in the division below, Guingamp are only 13 places beneath Toulouse in the pyramid, and are in much better form, despite a defeat at the weekend.
Toulouse have a torrid recent history against lower-league clubs, and this will be a stern test against a club with pedigree in this competition.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 47.19%. A win for Guingamp had a probability of 27.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Guingamp win was 0-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Guingamp would win this match.
1.37) 
-0.69) 
