SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 52.05%. A draw had a probability of 26.1% and a win for Millonarios had a probability of 21.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%), while for a Millonarios win it was 0-1 (8.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Millonarios |
52.05% ( -0.44) | 26.14% ( 0.16) | 21.81% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 45.15% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.28% ( -0.29) | 57.72% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.53% ( -0.23) | 78.47% ( 0.23) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.71% ( -0.31) | 22.28% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.26% ( -0.47) | 55.74% ( 0.47) |
| Millonarios Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.1% ( 0.13) | 41.89% ( -0.13) |
