Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 28.54% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.54%) and 0-2 (6.91%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 2-1 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
