SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 36.19%. A win for Atletico Nacional had a probability of 35.16% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.61%) and 2-0 (6.78%). The likeliest Atletico Nacional win was 0-1 (11.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Patronato | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
36.19% ( -0.81) | 28.64% ( 0.32) | 35.16% ( 0.48) |
| Both teams to score 45.89% ( -0.91) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.42% ( -1.13) | 60.58% ( 1.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.32% ( -0.86) | 80.68% ( 0.86) |
| Patronato Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.08% ( -1.08) | 31.92% ( 1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.63% ( -1.25) | 68.37% ( 1.25) |
| Atletico Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.41% ( -0.26) | 32.59% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.87% ( -0.3) | 69.13% ( 0.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Patronato | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
| 1-0 @ 11.87% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 7.61% ( -0.19)2-0 @ 6.78% ( -0.12)3-1 @ 2.9% ( -0.16)3-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.1)Other @ 2.83% Total : 36.19% | 1-1 @ 13.31% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 10.4% ( 0.43)2-2 @ 4.26% ( -0.14)Other @ 0.66% Total : 28.63% | 0-1 @ 11.66% ( 0.41) 1-2 @ 7.47% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.54% ( 0.18)1-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.44% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.67% Total : 35.16% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Manchester CityMan City | 38 | 28 | 5 | 5 | 94 | 33 | 61 | 89 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 88 | 43 | 45 | 84 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 43 | 15 | 75 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 38 | 19 | 14 | 5 | 68 | 33 | 35 | 71 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 38 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 75 | 47 | 28 | 67 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 38 | 18 | 8 | 12 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 62 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 46 | 5 | 61 |
| 8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 38 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 60 |
| 9 | Brentford | 38 | 15 | 14 | 9 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 59 |
| 10 | Fulham | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 55 | 53 | 2 | 52 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 40 | 49 | -9 | 45 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 38 | 11 | 11 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 44 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 41 |
| 14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 40 |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 71 | -34 | 39 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 38 | 68 | -30 | 38 |
| 17 | Everton | 38 | 8 | 12 | 18 | 34 | 57 | -23 | 36 |
| R | Leicester CityLeicester | 38 | 9 | 7 | 22 | 51 | 68 | -17 | 34 |
| R | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 38 | 7 | 10 | 21 | 48 | 78 | -30 | 31 |
| R | Southampton | 38 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 36 | 73 | -37 | 25 |
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