SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 48.36%. A win for Independiente Petrolero had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.66%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Independiente Petrolero win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 7-0 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Emelec would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Emelec | Draw | Independiente Petrolero |
48.36% ( -0.04) | 22.93% ( -0) | 28.71% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 62.03% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.27% ( 0.05) | 38.73% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.96% ( 0.05) | 61.04% ( -0.04) |
| Emelec Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.68% ( 0) | 16.32% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.1% | 45.9% ( 0) |
| Independiente Petrolero Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.13% ( 0.06) | 25.88% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.14% ( 0.08) | 60.86% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Emelec | Draw | Independiente Petrolero |
| 2-1 @ 9.38% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 6.94% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.67% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.19% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.83% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.57% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.9% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.74% ( 0)5-1 @ 0.93% Other @ 3.55% Total : 48.36% | 1-1 @ 10.34% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 6.34% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.73% ( 0)Other @ 0.29% Total : 22.92% | 1-2 @ 6.99% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.71% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.86% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.15% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.86% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.74% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.07% ( 0)2-4 @ 0.97% ( 0)Other @ 2.38% Total : 28.72% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 87 | 30 | 57 | 79 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 81 | 39 | 42 | 78 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 33 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 61 | 27 | 34 | 65 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 63 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 66 | 42 | 24 | 59 |
| 6 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 57 | 6 | 54 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 61 | 40 | 21 | 52 |
| 9 | Brentford | 34 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 50 |
| 10 | Fulham | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 45 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 39 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 37 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 34 |
| 16 | Leicester CityLeicester | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 46 | 59 | -13 | 30 |
| 17 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 43 | 67 | -24 | 30 |
| 18 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 30 |
| 19 | Everton | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 27 | 52 | -25 | 29 |
| 20 | Southampton | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 24 |
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