SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a El Nacional win with a probability of 51.56%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Independiente Medellin had a probability of 22.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a El Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.11%), while for a Independiente Medellin win it was 0-1 (7.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| El Nacional | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
51.56% ( 1.33) | 25.67% ( -0.27) | 22.77% ( -1.06) |
| Both teams to score 47.53% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.81% ( 0.09) | 55.19% ( -0.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.58% ( 0.07) | 76.43% ( -0.07) |
| El Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.56% ( 0.61) | 21.45% ( -0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.54% ( 0.93) | 54.47% ( -0.92) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.51% ( -0.95) | 39.5% ( 0.96) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.82% ( -0.9) | 76.19% ( 0.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| El Nacional | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
| 1-0 @ 13.04% ( 0.2) 2-0 @ 10.04% ( 0.33)2-1 @ 9.33% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.15% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.98% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 1.84% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.17% Total : 51.56% | 1-1 @ 12.11% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 8.47% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.75% Total : 25.67% | 0-1 @ 7.87% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 5.63% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.4% Total : 22.77% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 33 | 25 | 4 | 4 | 87 | 30 | 57 | 79 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 34 | 24 | 6 | 4 | 81 | 39 | 42 | 78 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 33 | 18 | 11 | 4 | 61 | 27 | 34 | 65 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 49 | 39 | 10 | 63 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 66 | 42 | 24 | 59 |
| 6 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 57 | 6 | 54 |
| 7 | Aston Villa | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 54 |
| 8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 31 | 15 | 7 | 9 | 61 | 40 | 21 | 52 |
| 9 | Brentford | 34 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 52 | 44 | 8 | 50 |
| 10 | Fulham | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 45 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | Chelsea | 33 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 39 |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 34 | 11 | 6 | 17 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 39 |
| 14 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 37 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 34 |
| 16 | Leicester CityLeicester | 34 | 8 | 6 | 20 | 46 | 59 | -13 | 30 |
| 17 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 43 | 67 | -24 | 30 |
| 18 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 34 | 7 | 9 | 18 | 30 | 62 | -32 | 30 |
| 19 | Everton | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 27 | 52 | -25 | 29 |
| 20 | Southampton | 34 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 24 |
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