SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente Medellin win with a probability of 39.87%. A win for Guairena had a probability of 36.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente Medellin win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.07%) and 2-0 (5.66%). The likeliest Guairena win was 1-2 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Guairena |
39.87% ( -0.01) | 23.75% ( 0.01) | 36.38% |
| Both teams to score 62.33% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.28% ( -0.02) | 39.72% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.93% ( -0.02) | 62.07% ( 0.02) |
| Independiente Medellin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.8% ( -0.01) | 20.2% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.5% ( -0.02) | 52.5% ( 0.02) |
| Guairena Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.1% ( -0.01) | 21.9% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.85% ( -0.02) | 55.15% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Independiente Medellin | Draw | Guairena |
| 2-1 @ 8.59% 1-0 @ 7.07% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.66% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.58% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.48% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.02% 4-1 @ 1.83% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.21% Other @ 3.03% Total : 39.87% | 1-1 @ 10.74% 2-2 @ 6.53% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0)Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.75% | 1-2 @ 8.16% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.72% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.1% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.13% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.3% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.58% 1-4 @ 1.57% 2-4 @ 1.26% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.58% Total : 36.38% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arsenal | 31 | 23 | 5 | 3 | 74 | 31 | 43 | 74 |
| 2 | Manchester CityMan City | 30 | 22 | 4 | 4 | 78 | 28 | 50 | 70 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 30 | 18 | 5 | 7 | 46 | 37 | 9 | 59 |
| 4 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 30 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 48 | 24 | 24 | 56 |
| 5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 31 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 57 | 45 | 12 | 53 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 44 | 40 | 4 | 50 |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 49 |
| 8 | Liverpool | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 56 | 36 | 20 | 47 |
| 9 | Brentford | 31 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 47 | 42 | 5 | 43 |
| 10 | Fulham | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 42 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 33 | -3 | 39 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 40 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 31 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 26 | 42 | -16 | 34 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 31 | 9 | 6 | 16 | 31 | 59 | -28 | 33 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 29 | 41 | -12 | 31 |
| 16 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 40 | 60 | -20 | 29 |
| 17 | Everton | 31 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 27 |
| 18 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 31 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 24 | 56 | -32 | 27 |
| 19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 31 | 7 | 4 | 20 | 41 | 55 | -14 | 25 |
| 20 | Southampton | 31 | 6 | 5 | 20 | 24 | 53 | -29 | 23 |
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