SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 54%. A win for PAOK had a probability of 23.36% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.16%) and 0-2 (8.53%). The likeliest PAOK win was 2-1 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PAOK | Draw | Malmo |
23.36% ( -2.67) | 22.63% ( -0.61) | 54% ( 3.27) |
| Both teams to score 57.71% ( -0.9) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.94% ( 0.16) | 42.06% ( -0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.53% ( 0.16) | 64.46% ( -0.17) |
| PAOK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.33% ( -2.07) | 31.67% ( 2.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.92% ( -2.45) | 68.08% ( 2.45) |
| Malmo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.46% ( 1.21) | 15.54% ( -1.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.52% ( 2.21) | 44.48% ( -2.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| PAOK | Draw | Malmo |
| 2-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.51) 1-0 @ 5.66% ( -0.38)2-0 @ 3.25% ( -0.42)3-1 @ 2.32% ( -0.34)3-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.22)3-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.24)Other @ 2.66% Total : 23.36% | 1-1 @ 10.53% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.23)0-0 @ 4.92% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.63% | 1-2 @ 9.81% ( 0.17) 0-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.3)0-2 @ 8.53% ( 0.62)1-3 @ 6.09% ( 0.35)0-3 @ 5.29% ( 0.58)2-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 2.83% ( 0.27)0-4 @ 2.46% ( 0.36)2-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.07)1-5 @ 1.06% ( 0.14)0-5 @ 0.92% ( 0.17)Other @ 2.73% Total : 54% |
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