Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Neftchi Baku win with a probability of 38.25%. A win for Dinamo Tbilisi had a probability of 37.82% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Neftchi Baku win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.09%) and 0-2 (5.48%). The likeliest Dinamo Tbilisi win was 2-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Neftchi Baku in this match.
