SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 38.38%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 38.09% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.64%) and 2-0 (5.29%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
38.38% ( 1.23) | 23.52% ( 0.02) | 38.09% ( -1.24) |
| Both teams to score 63.32% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.52% ( -0.04) | 38.48% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.22% ( -0.05) | 60.77% ( 0.05) |
| Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.64% ( 0.57) | 20.36% ( -0.57) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.24% ( 0.9) | 52.76% ( -0.9) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.5% ( -0.6) | 20.5% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 47.01% ( -0.96) | 52.98% ( 0.96) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
| 2-1 @ 8.38% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 6.64% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 5.29% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 4.45% ( 0.16)3-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2.81% ( 0.15)4-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.4% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.12% ( 0.08)Other @ 3.02% Total : 38.38% | 1-1 @ 10.52% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.64% 0-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.86% ( -0)Other @ 0.33% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 8.34% ( -0.15) 0-1 @ 6.61% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 4.41% ( -0.16)2-3 @ 3.51% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.77% ( -0.15)1-4 @ 1.75% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 1.39% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.98% Total : 38.09% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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