Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 57.33%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 18.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.28%) and 2-1 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%), while for a Vasco da Gama win it was 0-1 (6.7%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
