SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 61.92%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 16.08%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.78%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gremio | Draw | America Mineiro |
61.92% ( 11.25) | 22.01% ( -5.56) | 16.08% ( -5.69) |
| Both teams to score 47.54% ( 6.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.45% ( 12.87) | 49.55% ( -12.87) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.43% ( 10.47) | 71.57% ( -10.47) |
| Gremio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.52% ( 9.46) | 15.48% ( -9.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 55.64% ( 15.22) | 44.36% ( -15.22) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.25% ( 0.92) | 43.75% ( -0.92) |
