Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mechelen win with a probability of 46.61%. A win for Sint-Truiden had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mechelen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.31%) and 2-0 (7.98%). The likeliest Sint-Truiden win was 0-1 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Mechelen in this match.
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