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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 61.58%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Smorgon had a probability of 17.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.51%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%), while for a Smorgon win it was 0-1 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.
| Result | ||
| BATE Borisov | Draw | Smorgon |
61.58% ( 0.2) | 21.15% ( -0.05) | 17.27% ( -0.16) |
| Both teams to score 52.77% ( -0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.14% ( -0.06) | 43.85% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.76% ( -0.06) | 66.24% ( 0.06) |
| BATE Borisov Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.28% ( 0.04) | 13.72% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.03% ( 0.09) | 40.97% ( -0.09) |
| Smorgon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.16% ( -0.22) | 38.83% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 24.43% ( -0.21) | 75.57% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| BATE Borisov | Draw | Smorgon |
| 1-0 @ 10.58% ( 0.05) 2-0 @ 10.51% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 6.58% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.46% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 3.27% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.55% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.37% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.95% Total : 61.58% | 1-1 @ 10.01% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.7% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 21.15% | 0-1 @ 5.04% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 4.73% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.38% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.14% Total : 17.27% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Dinamo Minsk | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 4 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Torpedo-BelAZTorpedo-BelAZ | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Neman | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 6 | 9 | 20 |
| 4 | BATE BorisovBATE | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Slavia MozyrSlavia Mozyr | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | IslochIsloch | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Gomel | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 11 |
| 8 | SlutskSlutsk | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Smorgon | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 9 |
| 10 | FC MinskFC Minsk | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Naftan | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Dinamo BrestDinamo Brest | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
| 13 | BelshinaBelshina | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 18 | -12 | -6 |
| 14 | Shakhtyor SoligorskSoligorsk | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 8 | 13 | -13 |
| 15 | Energetik-BGUEnergetik-BGU | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | -16 |
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