SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Colon | 13 | 0 | 16 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 17 | San Lorenzo | 14 | -2 | 15 |
| 18 | Lanus | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 44.87%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 28.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (8.54%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Lanus |
44.87% ( 1.87) | 27.06% ( 0.36) | 28.07% ( -2.24) |
| Both teams to score 48.17% ( -2.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.34% ( -2.35) | 56.65% ( 2.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.38% ( -1.93) | 77.62% ( 1.92) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.85% ( -0.12) | 25.14% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.14% ( -0.16) | 59.86% ( 0.15) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.36% ( -2.95) | 35.64% ( 2.94) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.59% ( -3.17) | 72.41% ( 3.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Lanus |
| 1-0 @ 12.37% ( 1.04) 2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.69)3-1 @ 4.05% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.93% ( 0.31)3-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.17)4-1 @ 1.4% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.36% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.32% Total : 44.87% | 1-1 @ 12.76% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 8.96% ( 0.78)2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.36)Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.05% | 0-1 @ 9.25% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( -0.5)0-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.35)1-3 @ 2.26% ( -0.38)0-3 @ 1.64% ( -0.27)2-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.27)Other @ 2% Total : 28.07% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | River PlateRiver Plate | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo | 14 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 28 |
| 3 | Defensa y JusticiaDefensa | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | BelgranoBelgrano | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 24 |
| 5 | EstudiantesEstudiantes | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 24 |
| 6 | Rosario CentralRosario | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 18 | 16 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | LanusLanus | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 22 |
| 8 | TalleresTalleres | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 11 | 9 | 21 |
| 9 | Godoy CruzGodoy Cruz | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 21 |
| 10 | TigreTigre | 14 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 20 |
| 11 | Argentinos JuniorsArgentinos Jrs | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 12 | 5 | 19 |
| 12 | Newell's Old BoysNewell's OB | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 19 |
| 13 | Boca Juniors | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
| 14 | Racing ClubRacing | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 18 |
| 15 | Central CordobaC. Cordoba | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 18 |
| 16 | Platense | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 17 |
| 17 | Instituto | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 17 |
| 18 | Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 16 |
| 19 | Sarmiento | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 16 |
| 20 | HuracanHuracan | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 19 | -4 | 16 |
| 21 | BanfieldBanfield | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 15 |
| 22 | GimnasiaGimnasia | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 15 |
| 23 | ColonColon | 13 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 24 | Atletico TucumanTucuman | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 14 |
| 25 | Barracas Central | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 14 |
| 26 | Arsenal SarandiArsenal | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 11 |
| 27 | IndependienteIndependiente | 13 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 10 |
| 28 | UnionUnion | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 8 |
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