SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tigre win with a probability of 61.01%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 14.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tigre win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.31%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (6.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Tigre in this match.
| Result | ||
| Tigre | Draw | Sarmiento |
61.01% ( 0.35) | 24.05% ( -0.05) | 14.94% ( -0.3) |
| Both teams to score 39.72% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.19% ( -0.3) | 58.81% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.67% ( -0.23) | 79.32% ( 0.23) |
| Tigre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.88% ( 0.02) | 19.12% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.25% ( 0.03) | 50.75% ( -0.03) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.1% ( -0.62) | 50.89% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 14.73% ( -0.42) | 85.27% ( 0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Tigre | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 16.09% ( 0.19) 2-0 @ 13.31% ( 0.16)2-1 @ 9% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 7.35% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 4.96% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 3.04% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.04)5-0 @ 1.01% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.52% Total : 60.99% | 1-1 @ 10.87% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 9.73% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.4% Total : 24.04% | 0-1 @ 6.57% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 3.67% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.48% Total : 14.94% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | River PlateRiver Plate | 16 | 12 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 8 | 19 | 37 |
| 2 | San Lorenzo | 17 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 35 |
| 3 | EstudiantesEstudiantes | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 31 |
| 4 | TalleresTalleres | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 30 |
| 5 | Rosario CentralRosario | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 30 |
| 6 | Defensa y JusticiaDefensa | 17 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 22 | 11 | 11 | 29 |
| 7 | LanusLanus | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 28 |
| 8 | BelgranoBelgrano | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 13 | 1 | 27 |
| 9 | Godoy CruzGodoy Cruz | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 20 | 18 | 2 | 26 |
| 10 | Boca Juniors | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 24 |
| 11 | Argentinos JuniorsArgentinos Jrs | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 23 |
| 12 | Newell's Old BoysNewell's OB | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 23 |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 22 |
| 14 | TigreTigre | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 22 |
| 15 | GimnasiaGimnasia | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 21 |
| 16 | Platense | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 20 |
| 17 | Instituto | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 20 |
| 18 | Central CordobaC. Cordoba | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 19 | -7 | 19 |
| 19 | Barracas Central | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 18 |
| 20 | Racing ClubRacing | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 18 |
| 21 | Velez SarsfieldVelez Sarsfield | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 17 |
| 22 | ColonColon | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 17 |
| 23 | IndependienteIndependiente | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 17 |
| 24 | HuracanHuracan | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 17 |
| 25 | Atletico TucumanTucuman | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 15 |
| 26 | BanfieldBanfield | 17 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 20 | -10 | 15 |
| 27 | Arsenal SarandiArsenal | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 25 | -11 | 14 |
| 28 | UnionUnion | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 22 | -13 | 12 |
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