SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle Jets win with a probability of 53.37%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 23.85% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle Jets would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
53.37% ( 1.06) | 22.78% ( -0.37) | 23.85% ( -0.7) |
| Both teams to score 57.8% ( 0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.79% ( 0.95) | 42.21% ( -0.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.38% ( 0.95) | 64.61% ( -0.95) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.19% ( 0.71) | 15.81% ( -0.71) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 55.03% ( 1.3) | 44.97% ( -1.3) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.66% ( -0.06) | 31.34% ( 0.06) |
