SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 54.37%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 25.34% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.67%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 2-1 (6.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne City |
25.34% ( -0.11) | 20.29% ( -0.01) | 54.37% ( 0.12) |
| Both teams to score 68.8% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.4% ( -0.06) | 28.6% ( 0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.51% ( -0.07) | 49.49% ( 0.07) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.2% ( -0.1) | 22.79% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.5% ( -0.15) | 56.5% ( 0.15) |
| Melbourne City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.11% ( 0.01) | 10.88% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 64.98% ( 0.02) | 35.02% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle Jets | Draw | Melbourne City |
| 2-1 @ 6.02% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 3.67% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.97% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 2.71% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.04% Total : 25.34% | 1-1 @ 8.14% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.67% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 2.43% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.57% Total : 20.29% | 1-2 @ 9.02% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 6.67% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.1% ( 0.03)0-1 @ 5.5% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 4.93% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.51% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 3.7% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 2.73% ( -0)0-4 @ 2.5% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.64% ( 0.01)3-4 @ 1.35% ( -0)2-5 @ 1.21% 0-5 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.39% Total : 54.37% |
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