SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Western Sydney Wanderers win with a probability of 38.3%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 37.48% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Western Sydney Wanderers win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.43%) and 0-2 (5.64%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 2-1 (8.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Western Sydney Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers |
37.48% ( 0.48) | 24.22% ( -0.08) | 38.3% ( -0.39) |
| Both teams to score 60.65% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.07% ( 0.41) | 41.93% ( -0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.67% ( 0.42) | 64.33% ( -0.41) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.67% ( 0.43) | 22.33% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.19% ( 0.64) | 55.81% ( -0.64) |
| Western Sydney Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.09% ( -0.01) | 21.91% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.82% ( -0.02) | 55.18% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Melbourne Victory | Draw | Western Sydney Wanderers |
| 2-1 @ 8.35% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 5.5% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.17% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 3.17% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2.75% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.56% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.43% Total : 37.48% | 1-1 @ 11.13% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 6.34% ( 0.04)0-0 @ 4.89% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.25% Total : 24.21% | 1-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 7.43% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 5.64% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 4.28% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.21% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.52% Total : 38.3% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 55 | 29 | 26 | 49 |
| 2 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 41 |
| 3 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 48 | 33 | 15 | 38 |
| 4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 38 |
| 5 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 36 | 39 | -3 | 31 |
| 6 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 32 | 38 | -6 | 29 |
| 7 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 29 |
| 8 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 30 | 36 | -6 | 28 |
| 9 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
| 10 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 23 | 7 | 5 | 11 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 26 |
| 11 | Macarthur | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 26 |
| 12 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 24 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 25 |
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