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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Central Coast Mariners win with a probability of 51.14%. A win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 27.59% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Central Coast Mariners win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.27%) and 2-0 (6.17%). The likeliest Melbourne Victory win was 1-2 (6.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
51.14% ( 0.17) | 21.26% ( -0.04) | 27.59% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 67.35% ( 0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.62% ( 0.13) | 31.37% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.17% ( 0.16) | 52.82% ( -0.16) |
| Central Coast Mariners Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.27% ( 0.1) | 12.73% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.03% ( 0.2) | 38.96% ( -0.2) |
| Melbourne Victory Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.17% ( -0.01) | 22.82% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.46% ( -0.01) | 56.54% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Central Coast Mariners | Draw | Melbourne Victory |
| 2-1 @ 9.12% ( -0) 3-1 @ 6.27% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.17% ( 0)1-0 @ 5.99% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.63% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.39% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)4-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 0.9% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.54% Total : 51.14% | 1-1 @ 8.85% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 6.74% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.9% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 2.28% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.49% Total : 21.26% | 1-2 @ 6.54% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 4.29% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 3.32% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.22% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.23% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.19% ( -0)Other @ 3.09% Total : 27.59% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 24 |
| 2 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 21 |
| 4 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 18 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 23 | 4 | 18 |
| 6 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Macarthur | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 18 |
| 8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 17 |
| 9 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 13 |
| 11 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 28 | -17 | 7 |
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