Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Holstein Kiel win with a probability of 44.89%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Holstein Kiel win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.23%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 2-1 (7.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.06%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Holstein Kiel would win this match.
0.05) 
-0.09) 
