SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 43.85%. A win for Arminia Bielefeld had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.22%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Arminia Bielefeld win was 2-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Arminia Bielefeld | Draw | St Pauli |
32.02% ( -0.26) | 24.13% ( 0.02) | 43.85% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 59.71% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.37% ( -0.19) | 42.62% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.97% ( -0.19) | 65.03% ( 0.19) |
| Arminia Bielefeld Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.3% ( -0.25) | 25.7% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.38% ( -0.34) | 60.62% ( 0.34) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.36% ( 0.03) | 19.64% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.4% ( 0.05) | 51.6% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arminia Bielefeld | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-1 @ 7.58% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.66% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.17% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.47% Total : 32.02% | 1-1 @ 11.16% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 6.17% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 5.05% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.52% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.12% | 1-2 @ 9.08% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 8.22% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 4.93% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.63% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.35% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.48% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.36% ( -0)Other @ 3.11% Total : 43.85% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 61 |
| 2 | Heidenheim | 30 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 31 | 30 | 60 |
| 3 | Hamburger SV | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 60 | 41 | 19 | 56 |
| 4 | SC PaderbornSC Paderborn | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 50 |
| 5 | St Pauli | 30 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 47 | 35 | 12 | 50 |
| 6 | Fortuna DusseldorfDusseldorf | 29 | 14 | 5 | 10 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 47 |
| 7 | KaiserslauternKaiserslautern | 30 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 43 | 38 | 5 | 44 |
| 8 | Holstein Kiel | 29 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 48 | 49 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 | Hannover | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 40 |
| 10 | Karlsruher SCKarlsruher | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 48 | 46 | 2 | 39 |
| 11 | Magdeburg | 30 | 11 | 5 | 14 | 42 | 52 | -10 | 38 |
| 12 | Greuther Furth | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 36 |
| 13 | Nuremberg | 30 | 9 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 44 | -18 | 33 |
| 14 | Eintracht BraunschweigBraunschweig | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 32 |
| 15 | Hansa RostockHansa Rostock | 30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 31 |
| 16 | Arminia Bielefeld | 30 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 45 | 54 | -9 | 29 |
| 17 | Jahn RegensburgJahn | 29 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 28 |
| 18 | SV SandhausenSV Sandhausen | 29 | 6 | 7 | 16 | 31 | 56 | -25 | 25 |
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