SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hong Kong win with a probability of 57.57%. A draw had a probability of 22.7% and a win for Bhutan had a probability of 19.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hong Kong win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.12%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Bhutan win it was 0-1 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hong Kong would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hong Kong | Draw | Bhutan |
57.57% ( 12.49) | 22.67% ( -4.68) | 19.76% ( -7.81) |
| Both teams to score 52.38% ( 5.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.34% ( 11.3) | 46.66% ( -11.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.07% ( 9.73) | 68.93% ( -9.73) |
| Hong Kong Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.06% ( 9.69) | 15.94% ( -9.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.79% ( 15.31) | 45.21% ( -15.31) |
| Bhutan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.31% ( -0.93) | 37.69% ( 0.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.54% ( -0.92) | 74.47% ( 0.92) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hong Kong | Draw | Bhutan |
| 1-0 @ 11.03% ( -1.79) 2-0 @ 10.12% ( 1.39)2-1 @ 9.88% ( 1.15)3-0 @ 6.2% ( 2.24)3-1 @ 6.05% ( 2.08)3-2 @ 2.95% ( 0.97)4-0 @ 2.85% ( 1.5)4-1 @ 2.78% ( 1.43)4-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.68)5-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.68)5-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.65)Other @ 2.28% Total : 57.55% | 1-1 @ 10.76% ( -2.07) 0-0 @ 6.01% ( -3.41)2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.45)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.3)Other @ 0.12% Total : 22.67% | 0-1 @ 5.86% ( -3.57) 1-2 @ 5.25% ( -1.17)0-2 @ 2.86% ( -1.86)1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.43)2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.64)Other @ 1.58% Total : 19.76% |
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