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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aberystwyth Town win with a probability of 40.59%. A win for Flint Town United had a probability of 35.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aberystwyth Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.9%) and 2-0 (6.13%). The likeliest Flint Town United win was 1-2 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Aberystwyth Town in this match.
| Result | ||
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Flint Town United |
40.59% ( -0.48) | 24.36% ( -0.06) | 35.05% ( 0.54) |
| Both teams to score 59.86% ( 0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.16% ( 0.39) | 42.84% ( -0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.76% ( 0.39) | 65.24% ( -0.38) |
| Aberystwyth Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.8% ( -0.05) | 21.2% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.92% ( -0.09) | 54.08% ( 0.09) |
| Flint Town United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.96% ( 0.49) | 24.04% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.7% ( 0.69) | 58.3% ( -0.68) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aberystwyth Town | Draw | Flint Town United |
| 2-1 @ 8.74% ( -0.06) 1-0 @ 7.9% ( -0.15)2-0 @ 6.13% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 4.52% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.22% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.17% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.25% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.68% Total : 40.59% | 1-1 @ 11.26% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.35% | 1-2 @ 8.03% ( 0.07) 0-1 @ 7.26% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 5.18% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.82% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 1.36% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 1.06% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.92% Total : 35.05% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | The New SaintsNew Saints | 22 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 83 | 8 | 75 | 60 |
| 2 | Connah's Quay NomadsConnah's Quay | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 44 |
| 3 | Pen-y-BontPen-y-Bont | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 41 |
| 4 | Cardiff MUCardiff MU | 22 | 13 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 41 |
| 5 | Bala TownBala Town | 22 | 12 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 40 |
| 6 | Newtown AFCNewtown | 22 | 10 | 3 | 9 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 33 |
| 7 | Haverfordwest CountyHaverfordwest | 22 | 8 | 3 | 11 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 27 |
| 8 | Caernarfon TownCaernarfon | 22 | 8 | 1 | 13 | 33 | 41 | -8 | 25 |
| 9 | Flint Town UnitedFlint Town | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 24 |
| 10 | Aberystwyth TownAberystwyth | 22 | 7 | 1 | 14 | 23 | 58 | -35 | 22 |
| 11 | Pontypridd Town AFCPontypridd | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | 22 | 42 | -20 | 20 |
| 12 | Airbus UK BroughtonAirbus UK | 22 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 66 | -53 | -2 |
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