Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 36.91%. A win for Defensor Sporting had a probability of 35.21% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (6.76%). The likeliest Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 (10.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
-0.26) 
0.08) 
