Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro Largo win with a probability of 43.22%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for La Luz had a probability of 28.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro Largo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.62%) and 2-1 (8.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.13%), while for a La Luz win it was 0-1 (10.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
-0.07) 
0.26) 
