Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Penarol win with a probability of 52.85%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for La Luz had a probability of 20.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Penarol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a La Luz win it was 0-1 (8.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood.
-0.57) 
0.2) 
