Coverage of the Taca da Liga Group Stage clash between Penafiel and Moreirense.
Form, Standings, Stats
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 53.18%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 21.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.14%) and 1-2 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.8%), while for a Penafiel win it was 1-0 (7.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Moreirense would win this match.
| Result |
| Penafiel | Draw | Moreirense |
21.93% ( -0.2) | 24.89% ( 0.26) | 53.18% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 48.73% ( -1.02) |
| 46.92% ( -1.21) | 53.08% ( 1.22) |
| 25.34% ( -1.04) | 74.66% ( 1.04) |
| 60.87% ( -0.89) | 39.13% ( 0.89) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.15% ( -0.84) | 75.85% ( 0.84) |
| 80.06% ( -0.5) | 19.93% ( 0.5) |
