SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Catanzaro win with a probability of 60.55%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Lecco had a probability of 17.24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Catanzaro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.56%), while for a Lecco win it was 0-1 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Catanzaro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Catanzaro | Draw | Lecco |
60.55% ( 0.84) | 22.22% ( -0.29) | 17.24% ( -0.54) |
| Both teams to score 49.27% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.51% ( 0.36) | 48.49% ( -0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.38% ( 0.33) | 70.62% ( -0.33) |
| Catanzaro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.43% ( 0.4) | 15.58% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.46% ( 0.74) | 44.54% ( -0.74) |
| Lecco Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.36% ( -0.44) | 41.64% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.88% ( -0.39) | 78.12% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Catanzaro | Draw | Lecco |
| 1-0 @ 12.05% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 11.21% ( 0.14)2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.95% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 6.09% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 3.23% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.67% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.19% Total : 60.54% | 1-1 @ 10.56% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 6.49% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 4.3% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.86% Total : 22.21% | 0-1 @ 5.68% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 2.49% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.26% ( -0.03)Other @ 1.83% Total : 17.24% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Parma | 19 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 37 | 17 | 20 | 41 |
| 2 | Como | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 29 | 21 | 8 | 38 |
| 3 | Cittadella | 20 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 27 | 20 | 7 | 36 |
| 4 | VeneziaVenezia | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 35 |
| 5 | CatanzaroCatanzaro | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 27 | 6 | 33 |
| 6 | Cremonese | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 32 |
| 7 | Palermo | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 32 |
| 8 | Brescia | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 22 | 21 | 1 | 28 |
| 9 | Modena | 20 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 28 |
| 10 | BariBari | 20 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 26 |
| 11 | Reggiana | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 24 |
| 12 | SudtirolSudtirol | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 28 | -1 | 23 |
| 13 | Sampdoria | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 23 |
| 14 | Pisa | 20 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 23 |
| 15 | Cosenza CalcioCosenza | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 21 |
| 16 | Lecco | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 34 | -11 | 20 |
| 17 | Ternana | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 24 | 30 | -6 | 18 |
| 18 | AscoliAscoli | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
| 19 | SpeziaSpezia | 20 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 17 |
| 20 | FeralpiSaloFeralpiSalo | 20 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 14 |
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