Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 37.4%. A win for Spartak Moscow had a probability of 35.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.17%) and 2-0 (6.54%). The likeliest Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 (9.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sochi in this match.
