SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Porto had a probability of 34.12% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.99%) and 2-0 (6.29%). The likeliest Porto win was 1-2 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Benfica | Draw | Porto |
41.58% ( 0.39) | 24.29% ( -0.09) | 34.12% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 59.87% ( 0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.26% ( 0.34) | 42.73% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.86% ( 0.34) | 65.13% ( -0.34) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.3% ( 0.33) | 20.69% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.71% ( 0.51) | 53.29% ( -0.51) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.49% ( -0.02) | 24.51% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.03% ( -0.02) | 58.97% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benfica | Draw | Porto |
| 2-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 7.99% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.29% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.65% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.27% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 1.83% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.81% Total : 41.58% | 1-1 @ 11.23% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 5.07% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.29% | 1-2 @ 7.9% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 5.01% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 3.7% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.03% ( 0)Other @ 2.78% Total : 34.12% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sporting Lisbon | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 12 | 14 | 31 |
| 2 | Benfica | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 30 |
| 3 | Braga | 13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 20 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Porto | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 28 |
| 5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | SC FarenseFarense | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 17 |
| 9 | BoavistaBoavista | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 15 |
| 10 | PortimonensePortimonense | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 15 |
| 11 | Casa Pia | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 12 | Estrela Amadora | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Gil Vicente | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 11 |
| 14 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Rio AveRio Ave | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Vizela | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | ChavesChaves | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 31 | -16 | 10 |
| 18 | AroucaArouca | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 |
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