We said: Orlando City 2-1 Columbus Crew
The Crew have an edge in terms of individual quality and match-winners, but they have had far too many defensive breakdowns this season at the most inopportune times, not the mention they have had a miserable campaign away from home, losing more road games than any side in MLS (10).
If this match were in Columbus, we would be inclined to predict a victory for the Crew, however, the Lions have been much more disciplined and solid defensively at home, which we believe will frustrate the visitors.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Orlando City win with a probability of 52.49%. A win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 23.83% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Orlando City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.73%) and 2-0 (8.9%). The likeliest Columbus Crew win was 0-1 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Orlando City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Orlando City.
| Result |
| Orlando City | Draw | Columbus Crew |
52.49% ( 0.07) | 23.67% ( -0.03) | 23.83% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 54.81% ( 0.04) |
| 53.83% ( 0.07) | 46.17% ( -0.07) |
| 31.53% ( 0.07) | 68.46% ( -0.07) |
| 82.43% ( 0.05) | 17.56% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.88% ( 0.09) | 48.11% ( -0.09) |
| 66.49% ( 0) | 33.51% ( -0.01) |
