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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atlanta United win with a probability of 55.99%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 21.52%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atlanta United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.85%) and 2-0 (9.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.57%), while for a New York City FC win it was 1-2 (5.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Atlanta United | Draw | New York City FC |
55.99% ( 1.82) | 22.49% ( -0.48) | 21.52% ( -1.34) |
| Both teams to score 55.68% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.41% ( 0.56) | 43.59% ( -0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.02% ( 0.55) | 65.98% ( -0.55) |
| Atlanta United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.59% ( 0.82) | 15.41% ( -0.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.77% ( 1.51) | 44.23% ( -1.51) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.82% ( -0.92) | 34.18% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.13% ( -1) | 70.87% ( 1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atlanta United | Draw | New York City FC |
| 2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 9.85% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 9.21% ( 0.29)3-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.21)3-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.33)3-2 @ 3.31% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.88% ( 0.18)4-0 @ 2.69% ( 0.23)4-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 1% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.63% Total : 55.99% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 5.31% ( -0.1)0-0 @ 5.27% ( -0.13)3-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.49% | 1-2 @ 5.68% ( -0.27) 0-1 @ 5.65% ( -0.29)0-2 @ 3.04% ( -0.24)1-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.09)0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.14% Total : 21.52% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 30 | 19 | 11 | 43 |
| 2 | New England RevolutionNew England | 19 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 23 | 10 | 36 |
| 3 | Nashville SCNashville | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 28 | 16 | 12 | 35 |
| 4 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 34 |
| 5 | Columbus Crew | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 38 | 26 | 12 | 31 |
| 6 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 37 | 35 | 2 | 29 |
| 7 | Orlando City | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 28 |
| 8 | DC United | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 29 | 26 | 3 | 26 |
| 9 | CF MontrealMontreal | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 27 | -7 | 26 |
| 10 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 24 |
| 11 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 18 | -1 | 23 |
| 12 | Chicago Fire | 19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 23 |
| 13 | New York City FCNY City | 20 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 26 | -5 | 21 |
| 14 | Toronto | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 26 | -8 | 19 |
| 15 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 18 | 5 | 0 | 13 | 17 | 28 | -11 | 15 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | St Louis City | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 32 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 19 | 9 | 32 |
| 3 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 29 |
| 4 | Houston DynamoHouston | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 24 | 25 | -1 | 27 |
| 5 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 27 |
| 6 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 25 | 31 | -6 | 27 |
| 7 | Dallas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 26 |
| 8 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 18 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 25 |
| 9 | Austin FCAustin | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland TimbersPortland | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 27 | -5 | 22 |
| 11 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 21 |
| 12 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 21 |
| 13 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 18 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 15 |
| 14 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 19 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 14 |
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