SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for Bastia had a probability of 34.45% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.58%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest Bastia win was 1-0 (11.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bastia | Draw | Caen |
34.45% ( -0.5) | 28.92% ( 0.05) | 36.63% ( 0.45) |
| Both teams to score 45.05% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.41% ( -0.2) | 61.59% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.56% ( -0.15) | 81.43% ( 0.14) |
| Bastia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.41% ( -0.44) | 33.59% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 29.76% ( -0.48) | 70.24% ( 0.48) |
| Caen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.84% ( 0.19) | 32.16% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.35% ( 0.21) | 68.64% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bastia | Draw | Caen |
| 1-0 @ 11.78% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 7.29% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 2.65% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 1.5% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.45% Total : 34.44% | 1-1 @ 13.36% 0-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 4.14% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.62% Total : 28.91% | 0-1 @ 12.25% ( 0.15) 1-2 @ 7.58% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 6.95% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 1.56% ( -0)Other @ 2.78% Total : 36.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Laval | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 33 |
| 2 | Angers | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Auxerre | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | Grenoble | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 28 |
| 5 | PauPau | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 26 |
| 6 | GuingampGuingamp | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Ajaccio | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 24 |
| 8 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 24 |
| 9 | Rodez AFRodez AF | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 23 |
| 10 | AmiensAmiens | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 11 | Paris FCParis FC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 | Caen | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 | Annecy | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 19 |
| 14 | Concarneau | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 19 |
| 15 | Bordeaux | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 | Bastia | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 17 |
| 17 | Troyes | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
| 18 | DunkerqueDunkerque | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 13 |
| 19 | Quevilly | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 12 |
| 20 | Valenciennes | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
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