SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 49.54%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 24.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.34%) and 0-2 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 1-0 (7.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Ajaccio | Draw | Toulouse |
24.84% ( 0.09) | 25.62% ( -0.01) | 49.54% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 49.81% ( 0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.72% ( 0.1) | 53.28% ( -0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.17% ( 0.08) | 74.83% ( -0.08) |
| Ajaccio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.48% ( 0.13) | 36.52% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.69% ( 0.14) | 73.31% ( -0.14) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.47% ( 0.01) | 21.53% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 45.41% ( 0.01) | 54.59% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajaccio | Draw | Toulouse |
| 1-0 @ 7.92% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.13% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 3.99% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.58% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.34% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.83% Total : 24.84% | 1-1 @ 12.16% 0-0 @ 7.86% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 4.7% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.89% Total : 25.62% | 0-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 9.34% 0-2 @ 9.27% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.78% ( 0)0-3 @ 4.75% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.84% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.82% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.93% ( 0)Other @ 2.33% Total : 49.54% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 37 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 85 |
| 2 | Lens | 37 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 81 |
| 3 | Marseille | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
| 4 | Lille | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 66 |
| 5 | Rennes | 37 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 67 | 38 | 29 | 65 |
| 6 | MonacoMonaco | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 56 | 13 | 65 |
| 7 | Lyon | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
| 8 | Clermont | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 56 |
| 9 | Nice | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 55 |
| 10 | Lorient | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 52 |
| 11 | Reims | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 51 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 37 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 47 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 45 |
| 14 | Brest | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 44 |
| 15 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 40 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 35 |
| 17 | NantesNantes | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 33 |
| R | Troyes | 37 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Ajaccio | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 74 | -52 | 23 |
| R | Angers | 37 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 18 |
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