SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lens win with a probability of 51.44%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 26% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lens win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.04%) and 0-2 (7.54%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 2-1 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lens would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toulouse | Draw | Lens |
26% ( 0.18) | 22.56% ( 0.3) | 51.44% ( -0.48) |
| Both teams to score 60.98% ( -0.9) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.91% ( -1.27) | 39.08% ( 1.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.59% ( -1.34) | 61.41% ( 1.35) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.04% ( -0.53) | 27.96% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 36.41% ( -0.69) | 63.59% ( 0.69) |
| Lens Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.64% ( -0.61) | 15.36% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.87% ( -1.16) | 44.13% ( 1.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Toulouse | Draw | Lens |
| 2-1 @ 6.53% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 5.47% ( 0.24)2-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 2.78% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.65% Total : 26% | 1-1 @ 10.25% ( 0.24) 2-2 @ 6.12% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.25)3-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.56% | 1-2 @ 9.6% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.31)0-2 @ 7.54% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 6% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 4.71% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.82% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 2.81% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 2.2% ( -0.06)2-4 @ 1.79% ( -0.1)1-5 @ 1.05% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.87% Total : 51.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 37 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 85 |
| 2 | Lens | 37 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 81 |
| 3 | Marseille | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
| 4 | Lille | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 66 |
| 5 | Rennes | 37 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 67 | 38 | 29 | 65 |
| 6 | MonacoMonaco | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 56 | 13 | 65 |
| 7 | Lyon | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
| 8 | Clermont | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 56 |
| 9 | Nice | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 55 |
| 10 | Lorient | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 52 |
| 11 | Reims | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 51 |
| 12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 37 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 47 |
| 13 | Toulouse | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 45 |
| 14 | Brest | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 44 |
| 15 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 40 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 35 |
| 17 | NantesNantes | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 33 |
| R | Troyes | 37 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 23 |
| R | Ajaccio | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 74 | -52 | 23 |
| R | Angers | 37 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 18 |
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