SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 | Sutton United | 6 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Grimsby Town | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 17 | Swindon Town | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 18 | Harrogate Town | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 19 | Stockport County | 6 | -3 | 4 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 48.77%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 24.91%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.41%) and 2-1 (9.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Harrogate Town win it was 0-1 (8.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sutton United | Draw | Harrogate Town |
48.77% ( -1.63) | 26.32% ( 0.09) | 24.91% ( 1.55) |
| Both teams to score 47.88% ( 1.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.15% ( 0.88) | 55.85% ( -0.87) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.04% ( 0.71) | 76.96% ( -0.71) |
| Sutton United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.06% ( -0.35) | 22.94% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 43.28% ( -0.53) | 56.72% ( 0.53) |
| Harrogate Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.13% ( 1.92) | 37.87% ( -1.91) |
