SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for Hartlepool United had a probability of 29.62% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.66%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Hartlepool United win was 1-0 (9.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Newport County in this match.
| Result | ||
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Newport County |
29.62% ( -0.2) | 27.24% ( 0.48) | 43.14% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 48.52% ( -1.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.37% ( -1.89) | 56.63% ( 1.89) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.4% ( -1.54) | 77.6% ( 1.55) |
| Hartlepool United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.57% ( -1.15) | 34.42% ( 1.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.86% ( -1.25) | 71.13% ( 1.25) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.99% ( -0.99) | 26.01% ( 0.99) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 38.97% ( -1.36) | 61.03% ( 1.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hartlepool United | Draw | Newport County |
| 1-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.39) 2-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 1.81% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.64% ( -0.13)Other @ 2.24% Total : 29.62% | 1-1 @ 12.85% ( 0.16) 0-0 @ 8.95% ( 0.63)2-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.22)Other @ 0.81% Total : 27.23% | 0-1 @ 12.05% ( 0.52) 1-2 @ 8.66% ( -0.14)0-2 @ 8.12% ( 0.13)1-3 @ 3.89% ( -0.18)0-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.16)1-4 @ 1.31% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.17% Total : 43.14% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Leyton Orient | 41 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 56 | 27 | 29 | 84 |
| 2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 42 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 55 | 38 | 17 | 74 |
| 3 | Stevenage | 41 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 73 |
| 4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 42 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 58 | 34 | 24 | 71 |
| 5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 42 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 71 |
| 6 | Bradford CityBradford | 41 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 54 | 35 | 19 | 71 |
| 7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 41 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 65 | 50 | 15 | 66 |
| 8 | Salford City | 42 | 19 | 9 | 14 | 64 | 49 | 15 | 66 |
| 9 | BarrowBarrow | 42 | 18 | 8 | 16 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 62 |
| 10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 42 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 57 |
| 11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 42 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 53 |
| 12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 41 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 52 |
| 13 | Grimsby Town | 41 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 52 |
| 14 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 42 | 15 | 7 | 20 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 52 |
| 15 | Walsall | 42 | 11 | 18 | 13 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 51 |
| 16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 41 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 51 |
| 17 | Newport CountyNewport | 41 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 50 |
| 18 | Gillingham | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 48 |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | 43 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 47 |
| 20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 42 | 11 | 12 | 19 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 45 |
| 21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 41 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 49 | 61 | -12 | 42 |
| 22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 42 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 41 |
| 23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 42 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 48 | 72 | -24 | 39 |
| 24 | Rochdale | 42 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 39 | 65 | -26 | 33 |
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