Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Northampton Town win with a probability of 38.18%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 31.98% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Northampton Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.55%) and 1-2 (7.49%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (12.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
