SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 51.96%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Barnsley had a probability of 23.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Barnsley win it was 0-1 (7.13%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Barnsley |
51.96% ( 0.02) | 24.59% ( 0) | 23.45% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 51.46% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.61% ( -0.02) | 50.39% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.67% ( -0.01) | 72.32% ( 0.01) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.62% ( 0) | 19.37% ( -0) |
