Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 48.2%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 25.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.21%) and 0-2 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.34%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 1-0 (8.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Bolton Wanderers |
25.77% ( 0.02) | 26.03% ( -0.02) | 48.2% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 49.47% ( 0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
45.85% ( 0.08) | 54.15% ( -0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.44% ( 0.07) | 75.56% ( -0.06) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.82% ( 0.06) | 36.19% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.03% ( 0.06) | 72.97% ( -0.06) |
Bolton Wanderers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.52% ( 0.03) | 22.48% ( -0.03) |