SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundalk win with a probability of 74.47%. A draw had a probability of 16.2% and a win for University College Dublin had a probability of 9.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundalk win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.87%) and 3-0 (10.21%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.72%), while for a University College Dublin win it was 0-1 (3.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dundalk would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dundalk | Draw | University College Dublin |
74.47% ( 0.88) | 16.22% ( -0.34) | 9.31% ( -0.53) |
| Both teams to score 46.07% ( -0.98) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.51% ( -0.12) | 40.49% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.13% ( -0.12) | 62.87% ( 0.13) |
| Dundalk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.68% ( 0.18) | 9.32% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.57% ( 0.42) | 31.43% ( -0.42) |
| University College Dublin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.8% ( -1.19) | 49.2% ( 1.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 15.91% ( -0.86) | 84.1% ( 0.86) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dundalk | Draw | University College Dublin |
| 2-0 @ 12.9% ( 0.27) 1-0 @ 10.87% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 10.21% ( 0.29)2-1 @ 9.16% ( -0.11)3-1 @ 7.25% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.22)4-1 @ 4.3% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 2.88% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.1)5-1 @ 2.04% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.53% ( -0.05)6-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.06)Other @ 3.56% Total : 74.45% | 1-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.25% ( -0.15)Other @ 0.68% Total : 16.22% | 0-1 @ 3.25% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 1.15% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.17% Total : 9.31% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Shamrock RoversShamrock | 23 | 13 | 7 | 3 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 46 |
| 2 | Derry CityDerry | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 30 | 17 | 13 | 39 |
| 3 | St Patrick's AthleticSt Patrick's | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 39 |
| 4 | DundalkDundalk | 23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 30 | 4 | 36 |
| 5 | Bohemians | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 20 | 10 | 35 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 30 |
| 7 | Drogheda UnitedDrogheda | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 23 |
| 8 | Sligo RoversSligo | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 23 |
| 9 | Cork City | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 21 |
| 10 | University College DublinUCD | 21 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 50 | -37 | 9 |
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