SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundalk win with a probability of 53.07%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for St Patrick's Athletic had a probability of 21.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundalk win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.32%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for a St Patrick's Athletic win it was 0-1 (7.52%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dundalk would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Dundalk | Draw | St Patrick's Athletic |
53.07% ( 0.54) | 25.2% ( -0.12) | 21.73% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 47.61% ( -0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.56% ( 0.02) | 54.44% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.19% ( 0.01) | 75.81% ( -0.01) |
| Dundalk Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.48% ( 0.23) | 20.52% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.99% ( 0.36) | 53.01% ( -0.37) |
| St Patrick's Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.89% ( -0.42) | 40.1% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 23.25% ( -0.39) | 76.74% ( 0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Dundalk | Draw | St Patrick's Athletic |
| 1-0 @ 13.03% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 10.32% ( 0.14)2-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 5.45% ( 0.11)3-1 @ 4.98% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.28% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.16% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.97% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.9% ( 0)Other @ 2.55% Total : 53.06% | 1-1 @ 11.9% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 8.23% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.76% Total : 25.2% | 0-1 @ 7.52% ( -0.09) 1-2 @ 5.44% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 1.66% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.32% Total : 21.73% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Derry CityDerry | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 11 | 16 | 34 |
| 2 | Shamrock RoversShamrock | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 35 | 17 | 18 | 33 |
| 3 | Bohemians | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 29 |
| 4 | St Patrick's AthleticSt Patrick's | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 25 | 2 | 26 |
| 5 | DundalkDundalk | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 26 |
| 6 | Shelbourne | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 24 |
| 7 | Sligo RoversSligo | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 19 |
| 8 | Drogheda UnitedDrogheda | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 17 |
| 9 | Cork City | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 |
| 10 | University College DublinUCD | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 35 | -27 | 6 |
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