SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 84.22%. A draw had a probability of 9.9% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 5.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 3-0 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.06%) and 3-1 (7.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.16%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (1.82%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
84.22% ( -0.92) | 9.88% ( 0.53) | 5.9% ( 0.39) |
| Both teams to score 56.37% ( -0.17) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 79.86% ( -1.18) | 20.14% ( 1.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 61.7% ( -1.7) | 38.3% ( 1.7) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 96.64% ( -0.3) | 3.36% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 85.23% ( -1.05) | 14.77% ( 1.05) |
| Almeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.33% ( 0.01) | 41.67% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 21.85% ( 0.01) | 78.15% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
| 3-0 @ 9.12% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 8.06% ( 0.31)3-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.1)4-0 @ 7.73% ( -0.12)2-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.28)4-1 @ 6.77% ( -0.11)5-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.23)1-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.31)5-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 3.49% ( 0.04)6-0 @ 2.97% ( -0.22)4-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.04)6-1 @ 2.6% ( -0.19)5-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.09)7-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.15)7-1 @ 1.26% ( -0.13)6-2 @ 1.14% ( -0.08)Other @ 5.03% Total : 84.22% | 1-1 @ 4.16% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 3.09% ( 0.12)0-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.21% Total : 9.88% | 1-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.12) 0-1 @ 1.23% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 0.9% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.95% Total : 5.9% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 70 | 20 | 50 | 88 |
| 2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 24 | 6 | 8 | 75 | 36 | 39 | 78 |
| 3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 23 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 33 | 37 | 77 |
| 4 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 21 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 71 |
| 5 | Villarreal | 38 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 59 | 40 | 19 | 64 |
| 6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 17 | 9 | 12 | 46 | 41 | 5 | 60 |
| 7 | Osasuna | 38 | 15 | 8 | 15 | 37 | 42 | -5 | 53 |
| 8 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 14 | 9 | 15 | 47 | 43 | 4 | 51 |
| 9 | Mallorca | 38 | 14 | 8 | 16 | 37 | 43 | -6 | 50 |
| 10 | GironaGirona | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 58 | 55 | 3 | 49 |
| 11 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 49 |
| 12 | Sevilla | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 47 | 54 | -7 | 49 |
| 13 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | 43 | 53 | -10 | 43 |
| 14 | CadizCadiz | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 42 |
| 15 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 42 |
| 16 | Getafe | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 42 |
| 17 | Almeria | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 49 | 65 | -16 | 41 |
| R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 11 | 7 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 40 |
| R | Espanyol | 38 | 8 | 13 | 17 | 52 | 69 | -17 | 37 |
| R | ElcheElche | 38 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 30 | 67 | -37 | 25 |
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