SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Kashiwa Reysol | 38 | -19 | 41 |
| 16 | Shonan Bellmare | 38 | -7 | 37 |
| 17 | Tokushima Vortis | 38 | -21 | 36 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Avispa Fukuoka | 38 | 5 | 54 |
| 9 | FC Tokyo | 38 | -4 | 53 |
| 10 | Consadole Sapporo | 37 | -1 | 51 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Tokyo win with a probability of 36.01%. A win for Shonan Bellmare had a probability of 34.85% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Tokyo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.45%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Shonan Bellmare win was 1-0 (12.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.4%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Shonan Bellmare | Draw | FC Tokyo |
34.85% ( -1.69) | 29.14% ( -0.19) | 36.01% ( 1.88) |
| Both teams to score 44.46% ( 0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
