Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hungary win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Northern Ireland had a probability of 29.28% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hungary win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.32%) and 0-2 (8.31%). The likeliest Northern Ireland win was 1-0 (10.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Hungary in this match.