SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Japan | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Spain | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica | 3 | -8 | 3 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 63.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Costa Rica had a probability of 12.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.43%) and 2-1 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%), while for a Costa Rica win it was 0-1 (6.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Costa Rica |
63.63% ( -0.23) | 23.48% ( 0.12) | 12.89% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 36.66% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.78% ( -0.18) | 60.22% ( 0.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.6% ( -0.14) | 80.41% ( 0.14) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.32% ( -0.15) | 18.69% ( 0.15) |
